National's Auckland firewall visualised

Auckland Visual National.png

Auckland has become the National Party's firewall as demonstrated by their ability to either grow or minimise party vote loss across all but five of Auckland's 22 electorates.

What's interesting about this relative to Labour is that it illustrates that Labour has largely taken party vote share from the Green Party to achieve its gains North-Western Auckland, while Labour has hurt National directly in Auckland Central and the directly adjacent electorates of Mt Albert, Epsom, North Shore, and Tamaki.

As shown in my analysis of Labour's failure to mobilise its voters in West and South Auckland, these areas nearly all grew National's party vote share relative to 2014, barring Maungakieie (which only dropped 0.15% points).

In summary:

  • Five electorates lost more of the party vote share for National than their average loss across New Zealand (excluding the Maori electorates)
  • Five electorates lost less than the party vote share for National than the average
  • And 12 electorates actually grew National's share of the party vote, though Hunua and Upper Harbour could easily tip in a the above category once special votes are counted.