ELECTION CALL: Winston will be the kingmaker, the Māori Party will be gone from Parliament, there has been no youthquake, and the next government is likely to be a three way coalition of Labour, the Greens and New Zealand First.
Based on my projected change from advance voting results to final vote results - a projection which includes special votes and the distribution of votes from parties that did not make it.
The 52nd Parliament will look like this:
National - 57 MPs
Labour - 46 MPs
New Zealand First - 8 MPs
Green Party - 8 MPs
ACT - 1 MP
My projections also show that Labour is on the cusp of making it to 47 MPs, while National would ease back to 56.
That means the split between centre right and centre left is 58 for National and ACT, and 54 for Labour and the Greens and gives New Zealand First the option of forming a government with either National (without ACT) or with Labour and the Greens.
As I predicted back in August, I expect Winston Peters to go with Labour and the Greens over National, having twice been nearly destroyed by supporting a third term government, and not wanting to repeat that mistake with a fourth term government.
It also seems clear that the youthquake simply hasn't happened, just as I've been predicting over the past week.
In case you're curious, here's how the wasted vote redistributed. There's 0.34% lurking around that's up for grabs which could be what makes it a 47/56 split between Labour and National.