Youth enrolments up, still more needed and turnout to beat greyquake

12 to 17 September Enrolment Change in Likely Voters.png

The latest Electoral Commission enrolment figures show the greyquake is still on, though it has shrunk slightly. Last week I suggested that there had been a shift since 2014 from the youngest half of likely voters to the oldest half of voters of around 4.69 points. Using updated enrolment figures today that has eased back slightly to 4.58 point shift.

Projected Voters 2017 as of 17 September.png

While those aged 18 - 24 enrolled in the greatest numbers - some 4,000, they still need to enrol in much greater numbers, and then turnout to vote with increased numbers too to create a youthquake, there's a sign that things might be improving in favour of one.

For example, for those aged 18-24 to make up the same percentage of the likely voter population on election day as they did in 2014 (using the 17 September data), they'd need to lift turnout by 7.27 points to reach 8.8% again. Some of that could be mitigated if Labour and the Greens lift turnout in the 25 through to 49 age brackets, but given that the 18-24 pool is the second largest group (314,000 enrolments to the 70+ enrolments of 471,000), lifting turnout at the youngest end is likely to have the biggest impact.

What's also key to remember is that the lower half of the pool of enrolled voters - those aged 18 through to 49, also have the worst turnout rates, and hence the biggest opportunity for parties focused on turning out voters to make an impact.

While much of the youthquake talk focuses on those below 34, there's also a good opportunity from 35 through to 49 for votes to be secured.

It's probably also worth noting that early data suggests that the youthquake that propelled Jeremy Corbyn to the brink of victory was in the order of a 10 - 12 point lift in under 35 turnout. Given the gap to currently match 2014's youth turnout, we might be seeing a youthquake in the order of a 5 point lift, which while still impressive, might not be enough to combat the "greying" of the likely voting base.