1News Poll Prediction - 31 August 2017

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As is the fashion, I've done a quick guess at how I think tonight's 1News poll will land before the leaders' debate. It's an interesting one as I think Labour's rise will continue, but have tapered off and they won't quite be at 40% yet. National will be down slightly, the Greens will have recovered somewhat, while the Māori Party and ACT sit pretty much at the same level.

I did toy with taking a point off each of National, Labour, and either NZ First or the Greens and giving The Opportunities Party 3%, but I'd like to think that Gareth Morgan's continued verbal and Twitter diarrhoea has driven what little support he had away from the party.

Where it does become interesting is that Labour could form a minority government with NZ First and the Māori Party, relying on confidence and supply from the Greens. This would remove a major impediment to NZ First's negotiations with Labour, and I suspect Peters could work with the Māori Party better than he could the Greens. The Greens are almost certainly going to support this arrangement too as they'd rather have a Labour Government to barter with than a National one.

In theory National could form a government with the Greens, Māori Party, and ACT, but given the ideological differences between National and the Greens (and it does go both ways, not just the Greens), this is extremely unlikely to happen.

The real loser in this is ACT, who in any negotiation between National and NZ First is likely to be cast aside.